PREDICTIONS 2010

As is customary, and I have been reminded about the success of my blog post making predictions, I thought i would come up with another effort.  Here goes;

(1) The New Labour Government will be ousted by a Westminster regime even more right wing than they are by a majority of over 70 - the good lady and I have a bet on this with a bottle of champers being the prize.  This will be as a result of fresh sleaze and economic mistakes.
(2) Gordon Brown and Iain Gray will no longer be the leaders of the British Labour Party or BLP (Scotland Region) by this time next year.
(3) The Tories will have less than 3 Scottish MP's in the General Election,  creating anther Doomsday scenario, which will usher in huge support for Independence.
(4) The Tories will end the year behind in most polls at a UK level.
(5) The Lib Dems will lose half their Westminster seats. They will come under huge pressure to support Independence after secret plans by New Labour and the Tories to oust the Scottish Government, and form a coalition are revealed.  The Lib Dems back a referendum for 2011 after initially voting it down.
(6) Glasgow's No.1 football team will go on a glorious run , and emerge victorious and win the First Division with a couple of points to spare. The Mighty Jags take points off the Old Firm in the first half of the SPL  season.
(7) The Evening Times sensationally back the SNP for the general election, after Glasgow is awarded Metropolitan Status by the SNP Government.  The Evening Times will run this as part of its Labour let Glasgow Down/ Rip off Scotland campaign.
(8) The SNP will win most votes in Scotland at the General Election, and polls comfirm throughout the year that the next Holyrood Elections could result in a landslide.
(9)  Holyrood the Musical will go into production, whilst a petition is launched to bring back Glen Michaels Cartoon Cavalcade.
(10) The SNP make the 20 seat target, and in Glasgow East, John Mason proves that lightning strikes twice when just like his Council seat ten years before he beats his by-election opponent twice, after a recount.  The SNP gains another two seats in Glasgow, before the real drama starts.  The tension mounts as Glasgow South West heads into its fourth recount.  After a tie is declared the result goes to a toss of the coin.  And the winner is ....................................

JIM'LL JINX IT!

After celebrating a year in office, lets have a look at Jim Murphy's record as Secretary of State for Scotland; 

On 8th July he met Diageo bosses and announced after the meeting that they were considering alternatives to job losses; two days later Diageo emphatically said they weren't.
 

In May he encouraged Scottish bids for the Future Jobs Fund saying “we simply cannot abandon a generation of young people to the scrapheap of unemployment”, and when they were eventually announced the Scotland Office claimed a majority are successful; in fact a majority were rejected and Scotland received less than its pro-rata share. 

There is excitement in the Highland & Islands after Jim Murphy implies that a cut-price petrol scheme may be on the way for the islands; nearly two weeks after Jim Murphy is denying any such scheme was the cards
 

Throughout 2009 a number of children are detained at the Dungavel Immigration Removal Centre despite Jim Murphy announcing in October 2008 a pilot scheme to ensure children were not held at Dungavel   

In May 2009 it is revealed that despite Jim Murphy being allowed to announce that the Labour government were to reverse their increase on whisky duty that he had failed to even lobby for the industry before Alistair Darling imposed the increase.
  

In August Jim Murphy says that he will sort out visas for Lahore Pipe Band refused entry into the UK for the World Pipe Band Championships in Glasgow; next day it is reported that he has failed to secure visas for Pakistanis

 May 2009 and Jim Murphy leads Scottish Labour leaders at the launch of party's Euro-campaign; the party goes down to what can be described as its worst result in a national election campaign since World War One.
 

June 2009 - Jim Murphy welcomes the Calman Commission's final report and praises its participants; ten days later a Labour party debate in the Scottish Parliament sees the Calman parties fall apart with Tavish Scott declaring he is not a unionist and that the report must not be kicked into the long grass, and Annabel Goldie saying the Tories will wait and see.
 

Jim  Murphy is clearly a Jinx, or his claims and comments are suspect. A bad spinner or a political jonah?

One last thing.  Jim Murphy has been telling everyone who is prepared to listen that the Westminster Election is a two horse race between New Labour and the Tories.....

The SNP currently lead in opinion polls in Scotland for both the Westminster and Holyrood Elections....

LESSONS OF THE BALLOT BOX

The most illuminating aspect of the avalanche of comments and opinions aired in the aftermath of the result of the Glasgow North East by-election, is how much people reveal about themselves and their political world view in their response to the events of last Thursday. Apart from the man of the hour himself (and congratulations are due to the newly elected MP, Willie Bain, although sadly, working people may learn that he is no friend of ours, as per my last post), there has been a singularly ungracious, immodest and gloating tone from many New Labourites that doesn’t sit well with the reality of having to throw everything bar the kitchen sink at this campaign, and then some.

Yes, New Labour can still win in its heartlands and turn out the core vote, but only after a massive effort, not just in terms of activist resource ( with a high dependence on paid party workers) but also dependent on large amounts of cold, hard cash. Why was the calling of the by-election delayed for months ?  So trade union donated funds could be spent before the election expenses clock started ticking.  Funding a political party that shafts them still defies logic but whether this can be replicated across Scotland, never mind the UK is open to question, given the state of the party’s finances.

Yes, the percentage share of the vote is comparatively high as it traditionally has been in this area, but it’s hardly a ringing positive endorsement when two thirds of the voters don’t show up.  Of course there’s the issue of the scale of negativity required to scare the voters into staying with New Labour – the politics of fear and tribalism, and a ludicrous campaign stating that our city is being ripped off. Both here and in Glenrothes, the successful Labour campaigns were built on finding somebody to blame – to distract the voters from Labour’s dismal record and the hapless performance of the man who has held the purse strings since New Labour came to power.  The man who has managed the incredible feat of widening the gap between the richest and poorest in our society and squandering the best chance a Labour government will ever have to deliver social justice. In other words, they resorted to a Campaign that would not look out of place with the US Republican Party.

Our task ? Persuading people that change is possible, it doesn’t have to be this way, a better Scotland is our vision, proudly articulated from the very start of any campaign and quickly but calmly rebutting the fears and smears , exposing them for the lies they are – you have to ask, what is it about our opponents that makes them fear the Scottish people so much that they have to resort to these tactics because they believe we are not to be trusted to govern ourselves ?

It wasn’t just a re-branding exercise but a fundamental shift away from a belief in redistribution of wealth to a wholesale embrace of market forces when the Labour party became New Labour, and some people, particularly the older generation, are voting for a memory of a party that no longer exists and our challenge is to spread our message of hope, of ambition, of our vision for a modern Scotland that reflects our proud history and is positive

and relevant – not fearful and mean.  We are the true inheritors of the values that created and informed the labour and trade union movement – unlike some, we really do believe it’s possible to  "Work as if you live in the early days of a better nation.".

THE REAL CHOICE FOR WORKERS IN GLASGOW NORTH EAST

As well as campaigning in the South West of the City, I have been out in Glasgow North East, and it is simply breathtaking, the anger that voters have for New Labour because the media would have you believe differently.

What is more astonishing is the level of negative campaigning adopted by the New Labour during the by election.

This election like so many recently is a straight choice on many issues.  Amazingly, the by-election has been about devolved issues, and not Westminster ones.  Little wonder. Not one word about foreign policy or the economy from a candidate whose pitch would be more appropriate for that of a local council candidate.

During the SNP conference I spoke on the recovery from recession debate, and the fact that both the Tories and New Labour were complicit in their neglect on workers rights, which has led to workplaces closing all over Scotland, because it is easier to make someone redundant here than it is elsewhere.

It transpires that the New Labour Candidate, Willie Bain was BOOED AND JEERED at the Labour Conference four years ago, because he was against Secondary Action, in debate, moved by Unite, AMICUS and the GMB, over the disgraceful way that workers in Gate Gourmet were treated by British Airways.

Here’s what he said

William Bain, from Glasgow NE, was jeered when he claimed the call amounted to a "return to the employment practices of the 1970s or '80s".
Urging delegates to be realistic, Mr Bain said: "We don't want to see the party bounced back into a shift to secondary action. It wouldn't do anything to solve this dispute. Let's learn the lessons and go forward as a movement, not back."

Members of these Three Unions, and Trade Unionists in general should reject this candidate on this alone. The CWU and postal workers would also do well to regard his mouthing of support for them with a degree of scepticism – it’s the Say Anything campaign. From pretending that he would challenge unpopular Labour policies and decisions nationally to dissociating himself from unpopular local decisions on school closures (alongside his “nothing to do with me guv” councillor colleagues), it’s the ultimate face both ways New Labour smoke and mirrors act.

So workers in Glasgow North East have a real choice, a political party who agree that Employment Rights should be strengthened and that Industrial Relations should be dealt with in a respectful manner, or New Labour who from day one have shown whose side they are really on.

The Voters of Glasgow North East must vote for a Candidate that backs working people and their hard fought struggles for dignity and rights at work (which the Labour party used to stand for), and not the Candidate who opposes the rights workers have in other countries, and who opposes ILO Conventions.

 

That’s just one of the many reasons why David Kerr deserves to win.

OUR PLACE IN EUROPE

Like Freddy Kruger, the European issue just won’t stay dead for the Tories. However, they must be calculating that there’s enough of a time lag between their climbdown on a referendum and the inevitable Spring 2009 General Election date .Tory strategists must’ve crunched the numbers and worked out that such is the state of Gordon Brown’s Weak New Labour government, that they can safely afford a leakage of rabid anti-European voters to UKIP. A calculated risk ?

Bearing in mind the fact that their blue rinse core vote of Daily Telegraph readership would be more comfortable with leaving the EEC (as they still think of it), Central office must be really sure of their ground to try to finesse this , with a message of “oh well, you can’t put the genie back in the bottle, the decision to ratify the Lisbon treaty’s already been made, it would’ve been different if you’d voted for us in 2005 .. it’s beyond our control…”

The real reason the Tories can’t stomach the European parliament and legislation is not so much a Little Britain mentality (don’t forget it was Ted Heath who was the most enthusiastic proponent of joining the EEC, and whatever her public posturing might’ve been, Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act) , but is really a protest against any social democratic improvements in terms of legislation to protect workers rights and makes clear their opposition to important rulings on disability and health and safety legislation (aka measures to protect people from being killed at work or made to work for peanuts that are usually described as red tape).

When the EU operates as an agent of multi-national businesses then the corporate minded polticians are usually silent.  When Brown and Blair where going round Europe after 1997, seeking opt-outs from the European Social Chapter why didn’t  they call for a referendum then?

Strange though that when the Tories where in charge that the EU was looked upon to curb the worst excesses of Thatcherism, yet when New Labour where elected the EU went the other way.

Scotland’s Climate Change Bill is seen as an international standard maker, and the outrageous decision to deny Scotland a place at the Copenhagen Summit smacks of doing Scotland down. New Labour are terrified of Scotland appearing credible on a world stage.

The quicker Scotland is at the top table in Europe the better.

GOING POSTAL

As the previous blog post shows, history is on my mind; looking back to the last time we were contemplating the real prospect of the Tory vultures returning to power – 1978/9, and part of the simplistic analysis of that era is that the intransigence of the trade unions and striking workers ushered in a Tory government. However, I would point out again the fundamental contradiction in the New Labour analysis – they manage to suggest the 1979 election result was both a push (anti- old labour vote) and a pull (pro Tory free market vote), and given that the Tory medicine has been prescribed by New Labour from Day One of Year Zero (and before, as Brown announced before the 1997 election that he’d stick to Tory spending limits), they obviously favour the “pull” argument. It would be heresy of the most heinous kind in their minds to suggest that the confrontational industrial policy imposed by the IMF on the Labour governments of the 70’s ushered in the Tories.

So I would suggest that the parallels with the post dispute are not the miners strike (as at least one backbench Labour MP has observed and his whips interview must be pending), but those of the Labour government taking on public sector workers in late seventies.

Surely the lesson is not that workers shouldn’t defend their rights but that Labour governments should support them more or lose power – discuss?

Hopefully the talks on-going will resolve the bitterness that is festering on both sides.

The most despicable aspect of this episode is the disgraceful behaviour by Royal Mail, and influenced by the hand of the Dark Lord Mandelson to attack Union rights of the Communication Workers Union, as a result of this dispute.  Documents leaked to the media showed a strategy that dates back to the Victorian days.

The facts are that Royal Mail have ripped up agreements on pay, terms and conditions, and pensions,  signed with the CWU, without consultation,, who have no other option than to withdraw their labour.

The arguments against the dispute are the same old tired ones, with an obsession in indulging in a race to the bottom. 

Back the Posties!  

THE GREAT MYTH

“I have since wondered whether those thirty-four Labour members would have voted as they did if they had been able to foresee that their vote on that evening would precipitate a General Election, at the least favourable time for the government “and I’m quoting the words of Jim Callaghan himself in his auto biography “Time and Chance”, and look who he’s pointing the finger at, Labour members in 1977 not the SNP in 1979.

Who better to analyse the circumstances of the Labour government’s demise?  He was referring to the infamous Cunningham amendment which set the 40 % Yes threshold for devolution, a democratic travesty dreamt up by the arch unionists of the day. In Callaghan’s analysis of the events of 1979 “it was the adverse result of the two Devolution referenda in Scotland and Wales that finally ended the Government’s life “. What is remarkable is his non partisan analysis of the devolution vote, and he even goes so far as to state “the merits of the case had become entangled with a vote on the Government’s popularity, which was not high even in Scotland, because of the recent industrial disputes”.

So it would appear that Labour MP’s who were anti-devolution and profoundly hostile to Scotland having additional powers scuppered the Callaghan government and ushered in Thatcher’s Tories – according to the Labour leader of the day.

There’s also a great big elephant in the room when it comes to analysing the Tory victory in 1979 – the entire foundations of New Labour are built on the premise that Old Labour was fundamentally unattractive to the voters (in the oft repeated clichés of Winter of Discontent, too much power in the hands of the trade unions etc) and therefore they must believe that a Tory victory in 1979 was inevitable…no matter when the election was held or under what circumstances the government fell?

In the minds of the shiny suits clutching filofaxes in the 80’s and fixing red roses in the buttonholes then singing along to “Things can only get better”, in 1997 that they believe Thatcher, and the superiority of private sector delivery and market values was a historical inevitability,  in other words......

..Vote New Labour, get Tory!

As true today as it was then…………….

VALUES

Yes another comeback for the blog, a bit like Frank Sinatra some might say, and I've decided to spruce this up a bit with a new look for this esteemed organ! Its been quite a summer, having got married to the Good Lady, been involved in lengthy negotiations with the employer over changes to working practices, and of course campaigning, where we have reduced a 44% deficit four years ago to 3% in the European Elections.  Now to kick on and overtake.

Despite all the negative attacks placed on the SNP by our opponents recently, we seem to still be ahead in recent polling which spells trouble for our friends in the British Labour Party (Scotland Region).

The Summer has also been dominated by New Labour double speak no more so than with the release of Al Megrahi.  In football parlance its been a dreadful pre-season for them, and one can only wonder if they can up their game in time for the Westminster election.  Can this authors prediction that they could suffer the same fate as Lloyd George's Liberals really come true?

The first double speak was over comments from some Tories over privatising parts of the NHS, whist at the same time consider papers designed to do exactly that in Engand and Wales, hence the aforementioned suspension of funding from UNISON.  Of course they still campaign in Scotland for outsourcing and more PFI, when the rest of us look on in utter bewiderment.

They continue to shout about cuts, when at the same time prepare for shaving £1 billion from the Scottish Budget.

Equally they scream about SNP councils and terms and conditions, whilst for the last 10 years Gasgow City Council have issued redundancy notices to change terms and conditions in an effective sign or be sacked policy as a matter of course.

Today was the ultimate.  To send a signal that they are at the very least comfortable at Westminster with the compassionate release of Al Megrahi, we have their Scottish Branch saying something entirely different.  They must think the electorate are fools.  To suggest that an organsation which cannot sneeze with out their Bosses in London telling them what to do, can now have separate opinions is risible.

Today we can only assume they have no values.  Values will decide the winner of the Westminster elections in Scotland.  That is the lesson from the American Presidential elections.  New Labour can only do negative because they have no values to share.

On the otherhand the people have a choice.  They can choose world class public services and the principles of social justice, peace and yes compassion.  They can choose to rebuild an economy where massive job losses are not seen as a price worth paying. 

The people of Scotland are not leaving New Labour.  New Labour have already left the Scottish people.

Voters who wish the choice of values can only now turn to the SNP.

FEEDING THE HAND THAT BITES

I am down for the UNISON Conference in Brighton, for what is a unified conference so far, after General Secretary, Dave Prentis delivered a devastating attack on New Labour, and received a standing ovation midway through his speech when he announced that he was requesting that the Labour Link section suspend funding Labour Party Constituency Development plans.

There is little doubt that this move is symbolic, and underlines the frustration of workers in the Public Sector. In a poll commissioned by UNISON 70% of Public Sector workers will not vote for Labour. Correctly the move to suspend funding is due to New Labour's attitude to public services, and for the way New Labour MP's have conducted themselves with their expenses.

How will Labour respond? If the last few weeks are anything to go by, they will have learned nothing. At a time when the PFI scam has been revealed, where more goes to private companies than is actually invested in public services, we see New Labour in Westminster and Holyrood argue that PFI is the way forward!

As Dave Prentis said "We must demand a manifesto that puts limits on privatisation. …. a manifesto that rebuilds public provision. We cannot tell our members to campaign and vote for a party whose manifesto promises more competition and more privatisation of our public services.” That why UNISON are sick of feeding the hand that bites.

Trade Union members and the public at large support Public Services being delivered by the Public Sector. They believe that privatisation only benefits the private investor.

I am glad I am a member of a political party that supports the Public Sector principle too.

PERCEPTIONS

Three months since my last blog, as I have been very busy dealing with an employer that appears to have taken complete leave of its senses, pre-occupied with Thistle's ultimately unsuccessful promotion push, Campaigning across the whole of South West, and of course helping with preparations with my forthcoming wedding.

I have been meaning to post for a few weeks now, however, my opponent for Glasgow South West has given me the ultimate inspiration. I am not going to attack Ian Davidson for his individual expenses claims which have featured in the media, as that is a matter for him. However, he has got it completely wrong with his comments in the Scotsman regarding the new Interim Expenses arrangements. To suggest that "He wishes he had a larger mortgage so he could claim more in allowances" sends the wrong signal in the current expenses crisis.

Politics is often about perception, and at this moment many members of the public think that Westminster politicians are on the take. Suggesting you wish you had a larger mortgage only re-enforces that view. In all the telegraph coverage on expenses the real scandal is the property "flipping" i.e. pocketing the profits of a sold house which the public paid the interest for, and then buying another property.

What has to come from this morass, is more accountability. In that spirit, I have decided that if I am given the honour of being elected, I will rent a property, and publish my expense claims so voters can judge for themselves if they are getting value for money.

There must be a general election soon, so that people can express their verdict on the Westminster system, and to restore confidence.

SCOTTISH READERS FOR QUALITY NEWS

Just my suggestion for a campaign which I feel is needed to rescue Scotland's beleaguered media, and particularly the ongoing shenanigans deployed by Newsquest who own the Herald, Sunday Herald and Evening Times.

I am sure I am not the only one to recognise the downgrading of standards at these newspapers. This is not a criticism of the journalists employed at these titles, but a direct shot at the management. The disgraceful decision to terminate all staff contracts and then issue them with new (worse) terms and conditions, has resulted in experienced staff looking for the exit doors, with the result being that a voluntary trawl ended with so many wanting to leave, Newsquest are now in a panic. At one time working for the Herald was a badge of honour, now journalists do not have that feeling.

It is also my understanding that staff who are offered redundancy are being asked to effectively sign a clause stating that they will not pursue a tribunal against the management.

To use antediluvian anti worker legislation does Newsquest no credit.

Newsquest is not a company facing difficult times. Their profits are soaring. The parent company Gannet publicly state that they see reader contributor stories as the way ahead. Readers do not expect this at the longest established English language newspaper in the world. The Evening Times is fast becoming an extended edition of the in-house Glasgow City Council magazine.

Perhaps it is time to seriously consider the Irish Times model, which is owned by a Trust as the way forward for these titles.

All of us as readers need to voice our concerns at the outrageous employment practices deployed by Newsquest, and the dumbing down of our media, particularly at what was once the best titles in the Country.

A BUDGET VERDICT

So I have decided to blog again to keep my avid readers occupied. A very busy January for me in both work, and campaigning around North Pollok, and and in the Greater Pollok area. I am pleased to say that the voters of Glasgow South West continue to give positive feedback to the SNP.

On Wednesday I was scheduled to go to a meeting in the Scottish Parliament which was cancelled at the last meeting thanks to the Budget being voted down. This did surprise me somewhat as I did not think that some of the following was controversial enough to vote down;

- Extra funds for the NHS

- Real investment in delivering free personal care for the elderly

- A Second successive Council Tax freeze (in other words freezing a regressive piece of taxation)

- Investment in the Construction Industry creating 5,000 jobs.

However it seems that the people of Scotland have delivered their verdict to the Budget, and the behaviour of New Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens. In a poll for the Sunday Times published today, it shows that If an election for the Scottish Parliament was called now, the SNP would have a 6% lead in both Constituency and Regional voting, higher than in 2007.

Sensationally, despite the fact that the key economic powers lie with Westminster at present, Alex Salmond is level with Gordon Brown in terms of handling the economy. A Westminster poll has shown the SNP vote shooting up by 10%.

This poll reflects many of the comments from voters, work and trade union colleagues who are all agreed that the opposition parties who voted the Budget down, got that decision badly wrong, and that the Scottish Government are right to press ahead and try for the sake of the nation to proceed with pushing a budget that will help the people of Scotland through one of the worst economic periods ever.

SNP - Still on your side!